CITIC Securities (600030) Performance Evaluation: The parent company’s first quarter revenue and net profit exceeded market expectations
Opinion: The growth rate of the parent company’s revenue in the first quarter exceeded market expectations.
Parent company (only refers to the parent company of CITIC Securities Co., Ltd., the same below) The operating income for March 2019 was 22.
1.4 billion, an increase of 17 per year.
71%, but up 25% from February 2019.
77%, an increase of 3 from January 2019.
From an incremental perspective, the cumulative operating income of the parent company from January to March 2019 was 61.
1.3 billion, an annual increase of 43.
21%, and the cumulative operating income of the parent company from January to February 2019 is more than two years.
31%, mainly because the operating income in March 2019 exceeded the growth rate over the previous month (the parent company’s operating income exceeded growth rate in February and March 2019 were 90 respectively.
48% and 17.
Benefiting from the recovery of the securities market, the operating income of the parent company has increased significantly since 2019, and the performance is improving.
The company (referring to CITIC Securities Co., Ltd., the same below) is expected to have a continuous growth rate of 24 in 2019.
06%, the parent company’s revenue in the first quarter of 2019 exceeded the growth rate exceeding consensus expectations19.
Assuming that the amount of operating income of the parent company in the next three quarters is the same as the first quarter, the annual revenue of the parent company in 2019 is 244.
5.1 billion yuan, an annual growth rate of 24.
56%, slightly higher than Wind’s consensus expectations.
If the average daily turnover in the subsequent days maintains the level of March 2019, the scale of equity market financing exceeds 2018, and the securities market continues to recover, the company’s actual operating income growth rate in 2019 will continue to exceed expectations.
The annual growth rate of the parent company’s net profit in the first quarter exceeded market expectations20.
The parent company’s net profit in March 2019 was 13.
USD 8.5 billion, an annual increase of 56.
05%, an increase of 69 from February 2019.
88%, an increase of 86 from January 2019.
From an upstream perspective, the cumulative net profit of the parent company from January to March 2019 was 29.
4.1 billion, up 61 every year.
84%, while the parent company’s net profit in January-February 2019 increased by 67%.
37%, also caused by the slower growth of net profit in March 2019 than last month (the parent company’s net profit growth in February and March of 2019 was 174 respectively.
41% and 56.
Since 2019, the single-month net profit of the parent company has increased month by month, and the first quarter net profit has gradually expanded, and the net profit has improved significantly.
The 无锡桑拿网 company’s previous growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 is consistently expected to be 41.
83%, the parent company ‘s net profit growth in the first quarter of 2019 exceeded consensus expectations20.
Assuming that the net profit of the parent company in the next three quarters of 2019 is consistent with the first quarter, the net profit of the parent company in 2019 is 117.6.4 billion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 43.
34%, slightly higher than Wind ‘s consensus expectations.
The parent company benefited from the recovery in the securities market.
The average daily turnover of A shares began to be repaired in January 2019, and rose sharply in February and March. The average daily turnover of the two cities in January-March 2019 was 296.7 billion, 589 billion, and 884.7 billion yuan; the first quarter of 2019The average daily turnover of the two cities was US $ 585.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23%.
As of the end of March 2019, there has been a net inflow of USD 125.4 billion in capital from the north this year.
The balance of the two financial markets began to pick up in February 2019 and increased month by month. The balance of the two financial markets during the first three months of 2019 was 728.2 billion, 804.7 billion and 922.2 billion U.S. dollars; at the end of the first quarter of 2019, the balance of the two financial markets was8% lower than before.
The scale of equity financing in the market resumed in 2019. The amount of equity financing (by issue date) in January-March 2019 was US $ 159.2 billion, US $ 40.5 billion, and US $ 130.7 billion, respectively; in the first quarter of 2019, the market’s equity financing financial scale fell by 10%.
The amount of market debt financing started to recover from March 2019. The scale of debt financing from January to March 2019 was US $ 32710 billion, US $ 245 billion and US $ 4.6468 trillion, respectively; in the first quarter of 2019, the market bond financing scale exceeded 16%.
The parent company’s net profit mainly benefited from the increase in the average daily turnover of the securities market, the expansion of bond financing and the growth of the securities market.
Investment advice: Carefully recommend levels.
As the industry leader, the parent company has benefited from the obvious improvement in the market environment. Since 2019, the operating income and net profit of the parent company have increased significantly. The operating income and net profit of the first quarter of 2019 have gradually increased. The growth rate is higher than that of Wind in 2019.expected.
The market environment in the first quarter of 2019 improved overall compared to the previous one, but there is still room for further improvement. First, the average daily turnover in January and February 2019 was less than 800 billion, and it reached more than 800 billion US dollars in March.The monthly average daily transaction volume is expected to remain at the level of 3 months or more. Combined with the diminishing margins of the cost of securities companies, the company’s net profit growth will accelerate and increase the space. Second, the scale of equity financing in the first quarter of 2019 exceeded the same period of the previous year.The growth board brings business increase, market transaction volume increases, supports IPO expansion, and the company’s investment banking business income growth accelerates. Third, the securities market has grown steadily, and the profit-making effect has continued. If the expansion of interest rates is cut, it is expected to usher in stocks and bonds.The growth rate of self-operated business is tight.
According to estimates, the company’s current PB is about 2.
0 times, is at the center of historical estimates; the company’s EPS for 2019-2020 is expected to be 0.
91 yuan and 1.
03 yuan, the closing price on April 9 corresponding to PE were 27.
92 times and 24.
With the further improvement of the market environment, the company’s performance is expected to continue to exceed market expectations, the company is expected to further break through the growth space, and give the company a cautiously recommended rating.
The transaction volume of the securities market increased significantly, the scale of IPO financing increased, and the company’s performance growth was lower than expected.